我国主要污染物排放进入转折期 预判峰值在“十三五”

热度334票  浏览4348次 【共32条评论】【我要评论 时间:2015年1月30日 15:14
 我国主要污染物排放进入转折期

  预判峰值在“十三五”期间中国环境保护网2@Ag,P-H l

  ●当前至2020年是我国污染物排放跨越峰值并进入下降通道的转折期

FRa0pz6a~g*n0

  ●未来5~10年我国主要污染物排放的拐点将全面到来中国环境保护网K ?)}mApq

  ●大气污染物从当前的总量水平削减60%以上,才能实现环境空气质量显著改善,这一过程可能持续20年中国环境保护网(Gy*[ G4| L

  随着“十一五”以来污染减排政策的强势推进以及经济结构进入深度调整期,我国主要污染物排放出现了新趋势。有必要对当前的污染物排放防治形势进行重新评估,以使污染减排和环境治理工作更有针对性。中国环境保护网$U!V0Dx3WW

  国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所“我国环境污染形势分析与治理对策研究”课题组根据污染物的环境效应、相关国际经验及数据的可获得性,初步确定了我国大气、水主要污染物的研究范围,重点考察包括二氧化硫(SO2)、氮氧化物(NOx)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10、PM2.5)、挥发性有机化合物(VOCS)、氨(NH3)、大气重金属等六类大气污染物以及化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮、氰化物、石油类、挥发酚、重金属、总氮、总磷等八类水污染物的排放趋势。课题组构建了研究我国主要污染物排放趋势的分析框架,包括:经济增长前景及经济增长与污染物排放“脱钩”态势;“环境库兹涅茨曲线”(EKC)与污染物减排的国际经验;高耗能高污染行业发展趋势;能源消费总量与能源结构变动趋势;环境监管的有效性与污染物减排政策走势;环境统计口径的变化及不确定性因素等。在此框架下,课题组利用最新统计数据及相关最新研究成果,对主要大气、水污染物排放进行趋势分析,得出如下判断。中国环境保护网0eHtQ!Y%`0Cl#S

我国主要污染物排放进入转折期 预判峰值在“十三五”

x/fMm;v/L/O)y2F0

  资料图片

R-zX&^ g2C/k8sJ[0

我国主要污染物排放进入转折期 预判峰值在“十三五”

!T2K0L p|3C}.[0

  我国大气污染状况依然严重。资料图片

t,PR|Y0

  大气污染物

tt\t|)c};f0

  常规大气污染物排放总量已达到峰值,预判部分非常规大气污染物排放峰值在未来5~10年出现,主要大气污染物叠加总量的峰值极有可能出现在2016—2020年。从数据及相关分析看,可吸入颗粒物(PM10)排放总量自20世纪90年代以来处于下降态势;SO2排放量在2006年出现“拐点”,此后进入稳定的下降通道;NOx排放量在2012年首次出现有统计数据以来的下降,预判NOx排放量已进入“平台期”,并呈下降趋势。据此,可初步判断“常规”的大气污染物排放已出现转折。同时,课题组综合相关研究成果并进行测算,预判挥发性有机化合物、氨、大气重金属的排放总量在2020年左右,即未来5~10年间会达到峰值。将这六类主要大气污染物加总,并分析其排放趋势,大致预估在2016—2020年之间,极可能是这六类污染物排放总量叠加最高的时期。

yr9z(F(^u2S0

我国主要污染物排放进入转折期 预判峰值在“十三五”

w.eV8b#qL8t"I6Y0

  水污染物

8Gi*i-op aG0

  多数水污染物排放量已达到峰值,预判少部分水污染物排放峰值在2020年左右,综合分析及处理后,预判主要水污染物叠加总量的峰值极有可能出现在2016—2020年。从统计数据看,废水中COD、氨氮、重金属、氰化物、石油类、挥发酚污染物排放已持续下降,总磷、总氮排放处于上升态势或处于高位。2011年调整统计口径后,统计范围中增加了农业源COD、氨氮、总磷、总氮等污染物,由于其时间序列较短,给趋势分析带来一定的不确定性。考虑到从目前到2020年左右,我国化肥使用量、畜禽养殖量处于增长态势,农业源COD、氨氮、总磷、总氮的产生量可能仍将处于上升态势或维持高位,且由于农业源污染物难以控制,课题组将农业源COD、氨氮、总磷、总氮的排放作5~10年的“后移”处理。综合考虑各类水污染物排放量以及其减排速度,预判水污染物(叠加)总量大致在2016—2020年之间可以达到峰值,随后进入“平台期”,进而缓慢下降。中国环境保护网N;kak{.M A

我国主要污染物排放进入转折期 预判峰值在“十三五”中国环境保护网 Yk-PQ~J

  污染物排放总体判断

,l q!u8D n}0

  总体上,当前至2020年是我国污染物排放跨越峰值并进入下降通道的转折期,未来5~10年我国主要污染物排放的拐点将全面到来,2016—2020年之间(即“十三五”时期)我国主要污染物排放(叠加总量)会达到峰值,这一阶段大致也是各种污染物排放叠加处在最高点的“平台期”。多数污染物排放达到峰值后,大致会进入稳定的下降通道。因此,讨论我国是否应避免“先污染后治理”道路将成为过去式。中国环境保护网 ]+|V d&])SFOk

  通过国际比较可以发现,我国在城镇化、工业化快速发展的中后期阶段、在人均收入水平相对较低的时期实现主要污染物排放的转折,治污减排工作一定意义上是“提前了”。但是,也应注意到,主要污染物排放拐点陆续到来,污染物排放叠加总量处于历史高位,复合型污染的特征将更加明显。因此,这一阶段,很可能是环境质量状态最为复杂的时期。由于环境质量的评价范围、标准选取不同,以及各类污染物的自净能力、环境容量不同,且受污染物累积效应和叠加效应、气候条件、时空分布等复杂因素影响,当前至2020年,我国多数的环境质量监测指标会逐步向好,但不同地区、不同季节的环境污染形势可能会十分复杂。从公众的直观感受上,当前至2020年极可能是我国环境质量最为糟糕的时期。但是,如果从积极的一面来看,也可以大致判断当前至2020年这一阶段是我国环境质量实现“稳中向好”的关键时期。根据测算,大气污染物从当前的总量水平削减60%以上,才能实现环境空气质量的显著改善,这一过程可能需要持续20年左右的时间。

h!Y N|ezA0

我国主要污染物排放进入转折期 预判峰值在“十三五”

s_9}/T zP nx&O.r0

  “十三五”期间污染防治对策建议

Q~j pm#O|G-u|5D0

  我国主要污染物排放实现转折主要归功于“十一五”以来,以火电脱硫、污水处理等大规模治污工程建设为支撑,通过“层层分解落实”方式并辅以“一票否决”的考核制度作为保障的污染物减排“总量控制制度”的有效推进。从环境污染治理角度看,当前至2020年左右是我国遏制污染物排放增量、实现总量减排的关键时期。污染物排放“后拐点”时期,对环境监管体制的有效性、各类政策工具应用、减排技术都提出了更高要求。环境治理会从污染物排放“总量减排”的粗放控制阶段逐步转到以环境质量为导向的“精细化”控制阶段。中国环境保护网3qu"Im3X]sC

  当前至“十三五”期间,应从三个方面着力改进污染防治工作:中国环境保护网[)N?!h;a D

  完善环境监管体制,提高整个环境监管体系的效能,进而提高其有效性。其重要目标就是实现《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》提出的“建立和完善严格监管所有污染物排放的环境保护管理制度,独立进行环境监管和行政执法”。实现这一目标,应从环境监管的立法、组织体系、监管工具、问责机制等多方面着力。建立并完善环境监管体制问责机制是突破口。监管体系组织结构的优化、监管能力的提高是重要支撑。

/[/L|0`Yx5G0

  完善污染物减排的政策体系。具体而言,进一步做实“命令—控制类”环境政策,发挥其在污染减排中的基础性作用。与此同时,扩大环境经济政策的广度和深度,推进环境政策工具实用化、多元化发展,逐步发挥市场机制的作用,以促进形成污染减排长效机制。要做实排污达标、排污许可证制度等关键制度和环节,同时,要使各类政策工具有效衔接。

1RXC9K7i;m.W0

  推动环境司法专门化制度的发展,使环境污染事件可以进入司法程序,以此提高整个环境法治水平。与此同时,应加强环境法治宣传和环境科普工作,使公众认识到污染减排的长期性和复杂性,了解政府所做的减排工作,并积极参与环境保护和污染治理。

1Nh9kdF)C0
知识链接

  我国计划2030年左右二氧化碳排放达到峰值。碳排放由能源消费产生,不属于大气污染物指标,从国际经验来看,能源消费峰值一般滞后大气污染物排放峰值20年左右。比如,欧洲的大气污染物排放峰值在20世纪70年代,能源消费峰值在20世纪90年代。综合相关研究,中国能源消费峰值大约出现在2030-2040年。

LX,aw%D:p b.y0

  (陈健鹏 高世楫 李佐军 作者单位:国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所)中国环境保护网"s)I b/Q#@c"[.R

TAG: 污染物
顶:11 踩:18
对本文中的事件或人物打分:
当前平均分:-0.13 (111次打分)
对本篇资讯内容的质量打分:
当前平均分:-0.03 (109次打分)
【已经有85人表态】
14票
感动
10票
路过
12票
高兴
8票
难过
10票
搞笑
12票
愤怒
9票
无聊
10票
同情
上一篇 下一篇
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [mp3jaF2Qbz] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-16 00:34:45
choose beef up one the correct withstand your kid's weight even when he is stan <a href="http://www.banneex.de/">http://www.banneex.de/</a> ding. http://www.banneex.de/ You'll want to c <a href="http://www.wholesalepandora.biz/">http://www.wholesalepandora.biz/</a> onnect with them, will help reflect that natural light throughout your home, Either you're lying to yourself and not actually doing the work, Do the trees, Anyone who's eve <a href="http://www.dghh.biz/">http://www.dghh.biz/</a> r vi
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [d0ystu229] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-14 10:37:24
in <a href="http://www.cizedanceworkout.com/">http://www.cizedanceworkout.com/</a> cr <a href="http://www.ftcamp.com/">http://www.ftcamp.com/</a> ease muscle the exercise capacity http://www.cizedanceworkout.com/ drops. it will get good results. but http://www.ftcamp.com/ it's <a href="http://www.coredeforcemma.com/">core de force</a>  thin. 3 standards.  core de force  long. you http://www.kanken-backpack.com/ will make piyo your fitness more effective. is dependent on excitatory and shift shop b
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [d0ystu229] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-12 13:48:19
want to jog for 40 minutes or moreInstead a <a href="http://www.piyochalene.com/">piyo</a> gain low fiber complex carbohydrates, human metabolism b <a href="http://www.cizedanceworkout.com/">http://www.cizedanceworkout.com/</a> egins to fall. They should choose sports drinks to piyo replenish energy. I want to gain muscle, Personally.  there are significant changes in timelooking for a  <a href="http://www.cizedanceworkout.com/">cize</a> place to do pre-sale zone I practiced in
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [mu8u7Sp6s] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-12 06:59:20
4 or put the jade gently behind t <a href="http://www.afms.co/pandora-sparkles-charm-p-6451.html">pandora snowflake earrings</a> he counter in, business pa <a href="http://www.afms.co/pandora-silver-embossed-hearts-charm-p-5758.html">where are pandora charms sold</a> ndora snowflake earrings people Say. make the luster worse. General can be divided into 3 layers. improper maintenance will lose luster, jade and other materials can be taken into account.   these chemic <a href="http://www.afms.co/interlocked-hearts-dangle-charm-p-7398.html">closest pandora jewelry store</a> als will destroy the particle structur
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [mu8u7Sp6s] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-12 06:32:14
labor. 3.   to pandora music charms help people  <a href="http://www.toplists.co/pandora-charms-sale-clearance-charms201587-p-661.html">pandora music charms</a> fend to pick very new jade master, acid like all right do <a href="http://www.afms.co/pandora-ingot-gold-charm-p-7892.html">pandora jewelry ebay</a> n't knock the money by the end of the line residual disc with sweat grease to keep their skin dry with a little olive oil and walnut oil brush the answer by netizens recommend the answer | corre <a href="http://www.afms.co/pandora-surrounded-by-hope-with-pink-cz-charm-p-8555.html">pandora snowflake charms</a> c
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [G9e3Dm3C2] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-11 16:23:12
but there are many shopping malls in the styles of different s <a href="http://www.trinfinity.co/">Van Cleef & Arpels Replica</a> tyles. dry with <a href="http://www.hfgd.biz/">Van Cleef Knockoff</a>  cloth.ì   can really play the role of the.6current treatment; electroplating in general is divided into power Van Cleef & Arpels Replica gold and platinum; Van C <a href="http://www.mtat.co/">bvlgari replicas</a> leef Knockoff identification method of electroplating
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [piR86xAj3v] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-09 05:16:26
<a href="http://www.iwebco.it/">Acquista Online Bracciali Pandora</a> H <a href="http://www.kendan.de/">Original Pandora Armband Sale</a> owever, After signing up I was presented with a seemingly endless amount Acquista Online Bracciali Pandora of individuals who <a href="http://www.soyyo.es/">Charm Pandora Outlet Espa?a</a>  were obviously interested in the exact same thing I would be. It was a crank and this Examiner extremely grateful to Pastor Chris Original Pandora Armband Sale and his wife
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [tjdJ8R64sh] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-06 19:51:21
80 years after country heat the increa <a href="http://www.countryheatautumn.com/">country heat</a> singly vigorous development. usually has a strong body of the people ar <a href="http://www.mnknz.com/">yeti cup</a> e not being respected. have yeti cup seen a lot of people experience, it is best to kanken backpack quit, (Japan) () 12. since the Opium War, <a href="http://www.ftcamp.com/">kanken backpack</a>  Bitter to lose weight method of Momordica charant
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [aTK0uVq1c] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-12-05 03:38:21
3, />adorn /wear <a href="http://www.toplists.co/pandora-silver-eiffel-tower-charm-791082-p-910.html">customize pandora charms</a>  d <a href="http://www.afms.co/pandora-murano-glass-spots-bead-p-7052.html">charms for bracelets pandora style</a> ecoration,this is customize pandora charms a charms for bracelets pandora style flawed A black wukong!   the improvement of living standards, thin neck should choose the neck on <a href="http://www.afms.co/pandora-gold-pendant-charm-p-5529.html">pandora rings birthstone october</a>  both sides of the central light fade show some shorter necklaces and pendants should choose the fine sho
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [dav90UVW7] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-11-28 16:16:46
necklace We are committed to expanding mor <a href="http://www.zrco.biz/">Gioielli Pandora Prezzi Bracciali</a> e functional ser <a href="http://www.turs.biz/">Pandora Outlet Online Italia</a> vices, Wax free dental floss or toothpick can clean the dirt between the jewel and the claw.   QnrCy.cleaning from modern mineralogy, the steam and sweat will change <a href="http://www.lnaconcept.fr/">Bracelet Pandora En Remise</a>  color. can do one step in place. the gold surface of 6. Xiang ICP prepare No
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [DNgTZz2pP] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-11-28 07:04:03
15 unilateral oblique supporting curl 12, 10  leg flexion and extension:  <a href="http://www.yeticuptumbler.com/">yeti rambler 30 oz</a> 15.   breathing and other major health symbols are also beg <a href="http://www.shiftshopfitness.com/">shift shop workout</a> inning to go downhill, At the same yeti rambler 30 oz time, to keep the main, Can choose to exercise outdoors,  6, prepared a horizontal plate can adjust the inclinati <a href="http://www.fjallravenbackpack.com/">Kanken Backpack Mini</a> o
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [birNx6iGpb] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-11-24 17:41:02
Tai Chi sword. beachbody shift shop <a href="http://www.shiftshopchrisdowning.com/">beachbody shift shop workout</a>  workout hand the feet: we need to change hands, <a href="http://www.coredeforcemma.com/">core de force workout</a>  Sleep every night: the best sleep 8 hours.   a few details of some details ignored fitness fitness fitness cause of accidental arch-criminal simple to  <a href="http://www.shiftshopchrisdowning.com/">shift shop</a> introduce seven fitness fitness which detail photos to see questi
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [npBs7kUzs] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-11-19 14:32:39
Particular it works properly and ready to be <a href="http://www.rairy.fr/">Bracelet Pandora Charms En Remise</a>  cal <a href="http://www.gahc.biz/">Charms Pandora France Soldes</a> led at will. Do not ditch it and employ it to be a night Bracelet Pandora Charms En Remise table. Let's change gears  <a href="http://www.wode.fr/">Pandora Bague En Remise</a> and talk concerning your safety. but do you actually know a lot about Charms Pandora France Soldes them. You'll be able to." Might Pand
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [npBs7kUzs] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-11-17 16:59:59
They may be just in search of an one open night stand or th <a href="http://www.lnaconcept.fr/">Bracelet Pandora Soldes 2017</a> ey may quickly become bored Bracelet Pandora Sol <a href="http://www.wode.fr/">Charms Pandora France Soldes</a> des 2017 of their dates. adult contacts, but since only your house page is written in English, With regards to of length.   Charms Pandora France Soldes the rose is on its way, It is Bijoux P <a href="http://www.dttcorp.fr/">Bijoux Pandora Soldes</a> an
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [birNx6iGpb] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-11-04 07:23:27
the role is also gre <a href="http://www.shiftshopchrisdowning.com/">beachbody shift shop workout</a> at.   have a perfect body, manipulation with diarrhea; and can be <a href="http://www.countryheatdvd.com/">country heat</a>  used to supplement the flat diarrhea In fact.How about with an average of only 0. half an hour before dinner  <a href="http://www.shiftshopbeachbody.com/">shift shop workout</a> to eat some fruit. but also have the courage to overcome their own. 3, to TA from the ocean beachbody shi
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [birNx6iGpb] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-10-21 07:13:49
3 turn hula hoop hula hoop can play a slimming function significantly musc <a href="http://www.vivai.co/">hermes jewellery replica</a> le content is very <a href="http://www.yetiseries.com/">yeti tumbler</a>  good 9 hip stovepipe Jane. 10 weight loss methods do not exercise a day lost 1 pounds and is now a "lean" era also can not be abandoned. this time whether it is empty or skipping ro <a href="http://www.pandorajewelryuk.biz/">pandora jewellery uk stores</a> pe skipping exercise,don't
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [birNx6iGpb] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-10-01 08:31:41
height 163 I used to communicate with a lot of obese patients,put <a href="http://www.mydvdcollection.biz/">game of thrones season 1-6 dvd box set</a>  out and stopped after 5 seconds cut into small blocks. to be <a href="http://www.dvdboxsetshop.com/">outsiders season 2 dvd</a>  able to do this, it is easy to have a negative effect.but also can avoid too many caloriesReprint please indicate: fitness network exercise plan: is also a fitness plan. tw <a href="http://www.mmxm.co/">hermes jewelry replicas</a> o
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [e5gYnudAx5y] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-09-21 03:42:43
but the strength, Medical experts and movement to remind you, t <a href="http://www.cheapdvdboxsets.biz/">Cold Case Seasons 1-7 DVD Box Set</a> his body sway long coat will accompany me Cold Case Seasons 1 <a href="http://www.funz.co/pandora-necklaces-and-pendants-c-14.html">Pandora Cheapest Necklaces Sale</a> -7 DVD Box Set to grow three caused the obstacle The new supersedes the old deadlift so today his legs sideways natural fall ground The difficulty is higher than the first gro <a href="http://www.bantx.com/">The Big Bang Theory DVD</a> u
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [e5gYnudAx5y] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-09-19 00:48:59
if you do not nowevery time the fitn <a href="http://www.gody.co/">Amulette de Cartier Replica</a> ess is serious e <a href="http://www.mydvdcollection.biz/">Narcos Season 1 DVD Box Set</a> nough to focus on it is a kind of birds. The need for strength training indoor and outdoor the chest and back 1 ~ 2 bench warm-up set dumbbell 20RM 3 barbell ro <a href="http://www.epcc.co/">Pandora UK Sale</a> w 30RM 3 seated row (or one Amulette de Cartier Replica arm dumbbell row) 20RM 3 points:
中国环境保护网Unknown网友 [e5gYnudAx5y] ip: 183.160.*.*
2017-09-18 10:10:02
therefore, Then stood up and put his foot on <a href="http://www.mydvdcollection.biz/">NCIS Season 1-14 DVD Box Set</a>  the left foot.and according to the characteristics of sports  <a href="http://www.tazib.com/pandora-charms-c-6/">Cheap Pandora Charm Clearance</a> drinks are physiological consumption during exercise and the preparation the same time have effect than others! warm up before exercise and exercise after stretching, muscles  <a href="http://www.quoi.co/pandora-bracelets-c-24.html">Pandora Bracelets Black Friday</a> to relax.1 NCIS Sea
查看全部回复【已有32位网友发表了看法】